Hengli (600346): Rising PX price drags down performance and refinement results are on the horizon
Event description: On April 30, 2019, Hengli (600346) released the 2019 first quarter report.
The company achieved operating income of 150 in the first quarter of 2019.
53 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.
9%; net profit attributable to mother is 5.
06 billion, down 54 every year.
The initial decline in profits is due to the event that the price of PX has exceeded expectations and financial costs have increased. Comment: Efficient operation opens up the entire refining and chemical process, and Hengli enjoys the first-mover advantage.2018年 年12月15日启动常减压装置的投料试车，仅用时4个月于2019年3月24日就打通全流程，顺利注入汽油，柴油，航空煤油，PX等产品。
This project is the fastest advancing project among private refining and chemical projects. The company will enjoy first-mover advantage and take the lead in realizing the whole industry chain development model of “crude oil-PX-PTA-polyester”.
The scale of the company can fully enjoy the profit increase of 450 tons / year PX of refined products, and supply its own polyester industry chain. At the same time, it can also improve the overall profitability through refined oil and other chemical products.
PTA profit recovery, the company will greatly benefit the company in the first quarter of 2019 PTA realized revenue 91.
600 million, accounting for 60% of operating income.
The average price of PTA in the first quarter of 2019 was 5,540.
42 yuan / ton, up 11 before.
But because its raw material PX average price is 7374.
94 yuan / ton, an increase of 19 in ten years.
55%, dragging down its performance.
At present, the price of PX is in a downward channel and the company will benefit.
The company now has a 660 budget / year PTA capacity. In addition, the company’s PTA-4 and PTA-5 250 power station projects are each under construction. After completion in 2020, the company’s total PTA capacity will increase to 1160 / which will help the company to further strengthen its scale and cost.Competitive Advantage.
We expect that as a large number of refining and chemical plants are put into production, the price center of PX will gradually decline and move downward, the profit of the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain will be redistributed, and PTA will help to benefit.
At present, PTA profit is accompanied by a decline in the price of PX into the increasing channel. Until April 30, the PTA spread was 1568 yuan / ton, a month-on-month increase of 44.
6%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.
The high profitability of PTA will drive the company’s performance growth.
Polyester filament market rebounded and profits picked up The company’s main product for civilian polyester filaments was FDY, with 29 sales in the first quarter of 2019.
In 2005, the sales volume of industrial polyester filament was 3.
The average molecular weight of civilian polyester filament is 10189.
3 yuan / ton, up 0 before.
79%; the average formaldehyde of industrial polyester filament is 11,155.
43 yuan / ton, down 8 before.
The gross profit margin of the company’s products far exceeds the industry average, and the differentiation strategy is effective.
Polyester filament is directly facing the consumer side, and its profitability is expected to remain high as demand picks up.
Investment suggestion: We believe that the company is the leader of the polyester industry 无锡桑拿网 chain. The smooth commissioning of refining and chemical projects will significantly improve performance and firmly believe in the company’s long-term development.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/21 will be 72.
80,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.
67 yuan, corresponding to PE is 11.
4 times, maintaining “strongly recommended” level.
Risk reminders: Inventory losses caused by a sharp drop in oil prices; lower than expected downstream demand; poor sales of refined oil products; and less than expected construction progress of other projects.